Are you ready for winter? There’s a chance of snow in the mountains of Wyoming today, and before you know it, everyone everywhere will start grumbling about the cold. The big question on everyone’s mind is what’s in store for us this winter, and El Niño will likely be a major player in the coming months. Most indications point to the chance that the abnormally warm water in the Pacific will have a significant effect on our weather here in the United States.

We’re three days away from the start of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, and we’ve already seen one tropical storm this year. Tropical storms in May aren’t all that rare, but they aren’t exactly an omen, either. Forecasters expect a below-average hurricane season, but it just takes one to make a mess.

When the forecast calls for a 30% chance of rain, it's reasonable to think that the chances of seeing rain are 3 out of 10. But when the forecast calls for a 30% chance of tornadoes, the risk is much higher and much more dangerous. Why is there such a discrepancy between severe weather and rain forecasts?