When the forecast calls for a 30% chance of rain, it's reasonable to think that the chances of seeing rain are 3 out of 10. But when the forecast calls for a 30% chance of tornadoes, the risk is much higher and much more dangerous. Why is there such a discrepancy between severe weather and rain forecasts?

The Storm Prediction Center's moderate risk for severe weather fell flat today, with most of the severe weather occurring all around the area at highest risk but not much inside of it. Busts happen. They're good for residents but bad for forecaster verification. When it comes to the "crying wolf effect," though, we're actually lucky this kind of bust isn't commonplace.