What Are the Odds of Derek Jeter's Last Game Getting Rained Out?
As the sports world mournfully (or gleefully) waits for Derek Jeter to play his last game on Thursday night, the big question isn't whether or not the Yankees will win, but will the game go on at all? Let's look at the chances of this nor'easter raining out Jeter's last game.
As The Vane covered yesterday, a relatively weak nor'easter—the first of the year—is making its way up the East Coast this afternoon, bringing along with it some heavy rain and gusty winds. As of 100PM EDT, heaviest band of rain associated with the storm is north of New York City, with scattered showers and downpours threatening to move through as the system continues off to the northeast.
The experts are torn on how long this rain will stick around. The Weather Channel shows a 100% chance of rain at 600PM and 700PM, while AccuWeather (if you trust them) shows a 50% chance of rain around the time of the first pitch. The National Weather Service's forecast calls for a 29% chance of rain around 700PM.
To recap, the forecasts range from "it will definitely rain" to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Let's take a look at what one of the models has to say.
Multiple runs of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model show heavy rain in and around New York City around 700 PM when the game is expected to begin. The HRRR does a pretty good job when it comes to predicting when rain will begin and end, so it's worth giving some consideration.
Given what the forecasts have to say, and after running the question through The Vane's proprietary algorithms, here's what we came up with:
Odds of a Rainout: 2%
Given the amount of hype (and money) poured into this game, we're tempted to say that they'll hold the game come hell or high water. They're much more likely to delay the game than cancel it outright, and even then they'll only put it on hold if an exceptionally heavy downpour sets up over Yankee Stadium.
[Images: AP, WeatherBELL]
